🔗 Share this article

This surely should not continue. The logic defies sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Historic Triumph Against the Odds

The Claret and Blue army arrived at Saturday's Premier League clash at Chelsea aiming for a club record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in the distant past. For much of the match, this feat seemed improbable, as Chelsea controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea have shown frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a baffling knack of snatching wins on the road after falling behind.

First, the striker equalised, the ball ricocheting in off his shin and the post after his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Subsequently, he secured the winner with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might believe a bit of luck was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a significant element of good fortune. At the moment, though, Lady Luck seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Streak

The last nine of these eleven straight wins have been by a single goal. They have managed a shutout in only one of those games. Their underlying metrics have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the advantage was minimal. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula seems unsustainable, yet observers have been saying that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The key question is whether their results will finally align with their displays or if their performances can improve to justify the points haul.

This should not be possible, but everybody's been saying that for a while and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Resilience

Coming from behind is not just a feature of this season. Over the past 3 seasons, no team has won more points when trailing than Villa's 54; 18 of those were secured this term, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

• Firstly, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Second, Emery has proven very adept at influencing games through his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1-1.4, Villa became dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins came on for Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and providing the flank presence they had lacked earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's none before the changes; following them, Villa created 11 chances to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were in control and could easily have won more comfortably. Not for the first time, Chelsea boss Maresca seemed unable to react as the game slipped away; the impression remains that he is more proficient at implementing a game plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.

Individual Brilliance

Villa have cultivated a welcome habit of individuals producing pieces of match-winning quality to alter games. Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him working the ball onto his favored foot and whipping a finish home has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was the winger who transformed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker swung the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing flawlessly, but enough individuals within it delivering to secure the victories.

What Comes Next?

Can they keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they have to be viewed as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa beat Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has managed against Arsenal in the league this term.

The Gunners have since put together their own run of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. Tuesday will be a test for both teams – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their title credentials.